Talk:Ultra & Mega Rare Card Chance/@comment-50.167.46.141-20131004170843/@comment-1321146-20131006103738

There is no max #.

It is simply random.

Try casting some dice, and you will see similar coincidences. Sometimes you roll a six several times in a row, sometimes you roll forever without rolling a six. - Does that mean there's a max number of sixes you can roll?

If the odds of drawing a UR in this event was set at .5% it wouldn't mean that you'd have to draw 200 times to get a UR. Nor would it mean that you would draw one every 200 draws. Or event that you would average one every 200 draws.

At best, it means that the community as a whole would approach an average of one UR every 200 draws. But there isn't even a guarantee of that.

The only thing it means, is that each single draw has the same chance: 0.5% - No matter how long it's been since the last UR was drawn. You have to picture it like this: Someone is holding up 200 cards, and you get to select one of them. There are 199 duds, and only one winning card. - If you want to try again, ALL the cards are reshuffled, and the scenario repeats itself.

Unfortunately, it seems as if a lot of people believe that there will be fewer duds, the more draws they make. This is not the case.